The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), United Kingdom, has reported a projected 11% per capita rise in global dairy demand over the next decade. The OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook (2023–2033) highlights this surge will be led by developing regions, especially Asia and Africa, where fresh and processed dairy consumption is set to expand sharply.
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), a UK-based organization that provides independent evidence-based information to support British farming and food sectors, has released a report forecasting a significant rise in global dairy consumption over the next decade.
According to the OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook (2023–2033), worldwide demand for dairy products, particularly fresh milk, is expected to grow by approximately 11% per capita. This increase is primarily fueled by rising incomes and population expansion across developing regions, especially India and Pakistan in Asia, as well as the Middle East and Africa.
Fresh dairy consumption in these regions is forecasted to grow by 18%, contrasting with a projected 1% decline in developed nations, where market saturation and shifting consumer health priorities are influencing trends.
Beyond fresh milk, processed dairy products like cheese, butter, whole milk powder (WMP), skimmed milk powder (SMP), and whey are set to see global growth. Cheese consumption per capita is expected to rise by 13% in developing regions and 8% in developed markets, thanks to enhanced supply chains and cold storage infrastructure—particularly in China and Southeast Asia.
Evolving health preferences are also reshaping consumer choices. While high-fat dairy may decline in popularity in Western markets, high-protein, low-fat dairy continues to gain ground. This change in behavior is expected to drive import demand in Asia and Africa, with Europe maintaining its position as the world’s top cheese exporter and China emerging as a key importer of cheese, butter, and SMP.
The report suggests a clear message for dairy stakeholders in India and other developing markets—focus on processing capabilities, infrastructure, and international trade connectivity to capture the upcoming wave of dairy demand. Exporters that invest in scaling operations may reap long-term benefits as global consumption dynamics evolve.
The full report is jointly published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. More details can be found on the OECD website and FAO website.
