The U.S. dairy industry, led by the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC), saw mixed export results in May 2025 as rising global sales were overshadowed by a 15-year low in Chinese demand. Despite a 13% increase in export value, overall shipment volume dipped nearly 2%, highlighting the risks of overreliance on China and prompting calls to diversify market strategy.
Despite a 13% increase in export value reaching $803 million USD, the U.S. dairy industry recorded a nearly 2% decline in total shipment volume for May 2025, signaling trouble beneath the surface. The U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC)—the national body promoting U.S. dairy exports—highlighted that the slowdown is largely driven by a dramatic collapse in Chinese demand, now at its lowest in 15 years.
This slump has created an overhang across the global dairy sector. Tariff tensions and sluggish recovery in China’s domestic market have caused an 80% drop in demand for U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder and a 25% decline in low-protein whey shipments, with China alone accounting for 70% of the whey decrease.
While Chinese demand weakens, other regions offered some cushion. U.S. cheese exports reached record volumes, and sales to Canada rose by 6%, driven by favorable U.S. pricing. However, these gains were diluted by a 12% fall in exports to Mexico, traditionally one of the strongest markets for U.S. dairy.
Interestingly, butterfat exports surged, with volumes over 150% higher than 2024, signaling strength in select product categories. But experts warn that high dependence on China could continue to destabilize trade flows unless new high-growth markets are developed.
As the international dairy landscape evolves, USDEC stresses the urgency for strategic diversification, especially in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, to ensure long-term growth and reduce exposure to market shocks from single countries.
