In the first half of 2024, Kazakhstan’s ice cream market exhibited mixed trends. Despite a 2.9% drop in production volume compared to the previous year, sales in monetary terms increased by 1.3%, showcasing market resilience. Production decreased to 28,457 tons, while per capita consumption rose to 2.98 kg. The average factory price of ice cream saw a 4.9% rise, reaching 1364 KZT/kg, amid a lower inflation rate of 4.4%. Import dynamics shifted with a surge in imports from Kyrgyzstan and increased imports from Uzbekistan, while local supply decreased by 10.1%. Market capacity fell by 4.9% in monetary terms, reflecting the sector’s evolving landscape and ongoing market challenges.
Market Overview
The ice cream market in Kazakhstan has experienced notable changes in the first half of 2024. From January to June, ice cream production showed a slight decrease compared to the same period in the previous year, with a 2.9% drop in volume. However, despite the lower production figures, sales in monetary terms increased by 1.3%, indicating resilience in the market.
Production and Consumption Trends
By the end of 2023, Kazakhstan’s ice cream production reached 51.6 thousand tons, a significant increase of 25.6% from previous years. The total market capacity, including imports and exports, stood at 56.3 thousand tons, raising per capita consumption to 2.98 kg annually. Although this shows progress from the previous 2.4 kg per capita, Kazakhstan’s consumption still lags behind Russia and Belarus, where consumption is higher.
First Half of 2024 Performance
In the first half of 2024, Kazakhstan saw a 9.4% decrease in production in June compared to the previous year. The cumulative production for January to June was 28,457 tons, a 2.9% decrease from the previous year’s 29,315 tons. The decline in production is attributed to unfavourable weather conditions and market uncertainties.
Pricing and Inflation
The average factory price for ice cream increased slightly to 1364 KZT/kg by June 2024, a 4.9% rise from January. This increase contrasts with a minimal inflation rate of 4.4% in the first half of 2024, compared to a much higher rate in the previous year.
Import and Export Dynamics
For the first five months of 2024, ice cream imports from Kyrgyzstan have surged, surpassing imports from Russia. Kyrgyz imports increased 2.7 times, while imports from Russia fell by 6% due to changes in brand and product offerings. Imports from Belarus dropped significantly, while imports from Uzbekistan increased.
Kazakhstan’s ice cream exports have gradually grown to Russia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, but market entry remains challenging due to distribution limitations.
Market Capacity and Local Supply
From January to May 2024, the Kazakh ice cream market capacity decreased by 2.3% in physical terms and by 4.9% in monetary terms. The supply of local ice cream to Kazakh consumers dropped by 10.1%, while imports increased by 29.5%, regaining market share.
Table of Key Metrics
| Metric | Value (2023) | Value (2024) | Change (%) |
| Total Production | 51.6 thousand tons | 28,457 tons (H1) | -2.9% |
| Per Capita Consumption | 2.4 kg | 2.98 kg | +24.2% |
| Average Factory Price | 1300 KZT/kg | 1364 KZT/kg | +4.9% |
| Ice Cream Imports | 10.6 thousand tons | 5.41 thousand tons | +29.5% |
| Ice Cream Exports | 5.9 thousand tons | – | – |
| Market Capacity (USD) | 58.6 million USD | 56.2 million USD | -4.1% |
| Market Capacity (KZT) | 27,001 million KZT | 25,666 million KZT | -4.9% |
The Kazakh ice cream market remains dynamic, with a notable increase in imports and fluctuations in production and pricing. The sector’s growth prospects are tempered by market challenges and competition.
