Mexico maintains its lead as the top importer of U.S. dairy products, with cheese and nonfat dry milk driving growth. U.S. exports to Mexico rose to 29% of total dairy exports in 2024, benefiting from the USMCA trade agreement and increasing dairy consumption in Mexico.
Mexico has strengthened its position as the largest importer of U.S. dairy products, continuing its dominance in the sector. According to recent trade data, Mexico now accounts for 29% of all U.S. dairy exports, a notable increase from 25% in 2023. This growth has been fueled by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which has fostered an environment for substantial expansion, particularly in cheese and nonfat dry milk sectors.
In 2023, Mexico imported $2.32 billion in U.S. dairy products, with cheese being a key growth driver. By September 2024, U.S. cheese exports to Mexico had surged by 32.4% compared to the previous year, amounting to 314 million pounds. Mexico now imports 37% of all U.S. cheese sold internationally, further solidifying its status as a key market for U.S. dairy.
Corey Geiger, a lead dairy economist at CoBank, highlighted the consistent growth in cheese exports to Mexico, which increased by 17.9% in 2022 and 15.4% in 2023. Additionally, nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder exports to Mexico remain critical, with Mexico accounting for 51.5% of U.S. exports in this segment.
Rising dairy consumption driven by Mexico’s growing middle class has contributed to this increased demand. Since 2011, per-capita dairy consumption in Mexico has increased by 20%, reflecting a shift towards higher-quality proteins and fats. Despite this growth, Mexico still consumes only 45% of the dairy products consumed by the average American, revealing untapped potential in the market.
Looking ahead, the U.S. dairy industry is well-positioned to meet global demand, with nearly $8 billion in new dairy processing capacity expected to come online by 2026. However, potential policy changes following the 2024 U.S. election, such as shifts in tariffs and immigration policies, could impact trade dynamics.
Exports are critical for U.S. dairy farmers and processors, with 16% of all milk produced now destined for international markets. As the primary dairy customer for the U.S., Mexico will continue to play a pivotal role in the industry’s growth trajectory.
