A new school milk programme launched by the Indonesian government is expected to significantly boost dairy demand, creating export opportunities for New Zealand. The programme, aimed at providing milk to 60 million schoolchildren daily by 2029, could require over 2 billion liters of milk annually, according to a new report from Rabobank, a Netherlands-based global food and agribusiness bank. New Zealand, particularly through dairy giant Fonterra, is poised to benefit through increased exports of dairy products and possibly live dairy cattle, pending a ban review.
A recent report by Rabobank, a Netherlands-headquartered global leader in food and agribusiness banking, reveals that Indonesia’s new Nutritious Meals Programme is poised to reshape the country’s dairy industry and expand export opportunities for global players, including New Zealand.
Under this ambitious policy, the Indonesian government plans to provide nutritious meals — with milk as a central component — to around 60 million schoolchildren daily by 2029. According to the Rabobank report, authored by RaboResearch senior analyst Michael Harvey, full implementation of the programme could result in milk demand exceeding 2 billion litres annually.
Indonesia, with a population of 280 million, currently relies heavily on dairy imports, as its domestic production stands at approximately 900 million litres, while an additional 2.5 billion litres (in liquid milk equivalent) is imported. The government is aiming to scale up the national dairy herd and enhance its domestic supply chain to meet this upcoming surge in demand.
New Zealand, which has increased its market share in Indonesia’s skim milk powder segment in recent years, stands to benefit from this shift. The country’s largest dairy exporter, Fonterra, had already announced plans in 2020 to enhance its operations in Indonesia by upgrading its blending and packing capabilities.
Michael Harvey also noted that the programme could revive live cattle export opportunities from New Zealand, as Indonesia seeks to expand its local dairy herd. New Zealand had historically exported an average of 90,000 dairy cows and heifers annually, until a 2023 ban was imposed following maritime incidents. The ban is currently under public review, and if lifted, it could reopen a viable market for live cattle exports to Indonesia.
With the policy expected to transform regional dairy dynamics, industry stakeholders in New Zealand are watching closely, hopeful that Indonesia’s nutritional drive will turn into a long-term export opportunity for both processed dairy and live cattle.
