Idaho’s dairy industry is on high alert as proposed mass deportations could significantly impact its workforce, which is predominantly foreign-born. Industry experts warn that labor shortages may disrupt milk production and strain the local economy.
As discussions at the Republican National Convention spotlight potential immigration reforms under a possible second Trump administration, Idaho’s dairy industry faces the prospect of significant disruption. Former President Donald Trump has suggested that, if reelected, he could initiate the “largest deportation in history,” targeting up to 20 million undocumented immigrants. This plan raises alarm among industry experts regarding its potential repercussions on Idaho’s dairy sector, which heavily relies on foreign-born labor.
According to the Idaho Dairymen’s Association, the state’s dairy industry employs nearly 4,400 on-site workers, with an estimated 90% of them being foreign-born. Phil Watson, an economist at the University of Idaho, cautions that even a partial reduction in this labor force could severely impact Idaho’s economy and dairy productivity, which is already under pressure from stagnant milk prices and labor shortages. A study from the University of Idaho highlights that foreign-born workers fill low-paying, undesirable jobs that are often shunned by American-born workers.
“Businesses employ unauthorized workers because they can’t find enough authorized labor for the work,”
Phil Watson, Economist at the University of Idaho
He warns that without these workers, dairy operations may be forced to cut production, miss growth opportunities, or, in extreme cases, shut down.
A Stable but Vulnerable Labor Force
Idaho has maintained a stable undocumented population of around 35,000 from 2005 to 2021. However, the looming threat of deportations poses a risk to this fragile balance. Rick Naerebout, CEO of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association, estimates that unauthorized workers account for approximately 30,000 jobs statewide, illustrating the industry’s dependence on this labor pool.
Research conducted by Watson and his colleague Hernan Tejeda indicates that reducing Idaho’s foreign-born, less-educated workforce by 50% could result in a loss exceeding $900 million in state GDP. As Idaho ranks as the third-largest dairy-producing state in the U.S., any labor shortage could have far-reaching consequences for local milk production and the national supply chain.
Economic Risks and Industry Warnings
Industry leaders express grave concerns about the potential consequences of a worker shortage. Pete Wiersma, President of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association, is skeptical about the industry’s ability to meet consumer demand without foreign-born labor.
“If we lose these workers, I don’t think we could keep production going,”
Pete Wiersma, President of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association
While Watson acknowledged Wiersma’s concerns as somewhat extreme, he concurred that the dairy industry would face significant challenges, as dairy cows require daily milking, and any delays could impact cow health and overall milk output.
The anticipated deportations could also ripple through rural economies and related sectors. Watson pointed out that dairy operations indirectly support local economies, as employees spend on goods and services within their communities.
“There’s a lot of jobs that, without realizing it, are connected to dairy,”
Pete Wiersma, President of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association
The impact would be especially pronounced in rural areas where dairy farms are concentrated.
Industry Appeals for Immigration Reform
Idaho’s dairy sector has long been an advocate for immigration reform to secure a stable workforce. The Idaho Farm Bureau Federation supports granting legal status to current agricultural workers and expanding visa options for year-round employment. Current U.S. guest-worker visas, including the H-2A program, do not adequately address the year-round labor needs of Idaho’s dairy operations, restricting access to legal labor.
“This is a critical issue for agriculture, not just for dairy,”
Rick Naerebout, CEO of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association
Naerebout emphasized, highlighting estimates that suggest half of the agricultural workforce nationwide is unauthorized. He called for federal policy changes to align with the industry’s ongoing workforce demands.
As the specter of deportation policies looms, Idaho’s dairy industry and the broader agricultural sector are left grappling with uncertainty.
“The consequences extend beyond dairy farms, For a state like Idaho, where agriculture is central to the economy, the stakes couldn’t be higher.”
Phil Watson, Economist at the University of Idaho
